According the Federal Home Finance Agency’s Home Price Index, home values are now off just 12.5 percent from their April 2007 peak nationwide.  This, after a half-percent monthly increase in prices in May, on average.

Given the state of the market since April 2007, the Home Price Index results are a positive for both the housing market and the economy, but we have to remember that May’s half-point increase is an average, and not specific to a particular area.

In contrast to “national markets”, the real estate markets in which you and I live are decidedly local.  It’s a major difference and the distinction renders the Home Price Index somewhat less important.

After all, the HPI doesn’t account for housing activity in individual neighborhoods like Montgomery Cove , nor does it track value across cities like Knoxville. Instead, it summarizes data in giant chunks of geography.

A quick look at the HPI regional data proves the point. Of the HPI’s 9 tracked regions, only one was within one-tenth of one percent of the national, half-point average.  The others varied by as much 1.3 percent.

As a sample:

• Mountain Region : + 1.7 percent
• New England : + 0.2 percent
• South Atlantic : +1.0 percent

And this is on a regional basis. The HPI’s applicability to state, city and neighborhood markets is even less appropriate.

Real estate values cannot be captured in a national survey. For home buyers and seller, what matters is the economics of a block, on a street, in a neighborhood.  That type of granularity can’t be tracked in a report like the Home Price Index.

The best place to get that data is from a local real estate agent that knows the market well.

Last week, the Case-Shiller Index reported home values up 0.8 percent across 20 tracked markets. The public-sector Federal Housing Finance Agency has reached a similar conclusion.

Reporting on a two-month lag, the government’s Home Price Index shows home values up 0.8 percent in April, buoyed by the expiring federal home buyer tax credit and low mortgage rates.  It’s a positive signal for a recovering housing market — in Maryville and everywhere else.

But just because the Home Price Index says home values are rising, that doesn’t mean they are. The Home Price Index methodology is flawed on multiple fronts.

First, the Home Price Index reports on a 60-day delay. This two-month lag turns the HPI a trailing indicator for the housing market instead of a forward-looking one. If you’re a home buyer looking for direction, HPI won’t give it to you — you’ll have to get that analysis from your real estate agent.

Second, HPI only accounts for home values in which the home’s attached mortgage is backed by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.  As the FHA market share grows, fewer homes get included in the HPI sample set, and HPI values may be skewed high or low.

And, third, HPI doesn’t account for new home sales — only repeat ones.  This, too, eliminates a major segment of the market.

All of that said, though, the Home Price Index remains important to housing.  It’s still the most comprehensive home valuation model in print and it’s been giving strong readings since the start of year.  You can’t ignore that on any level.

It’s July and you may have missed the “rock bottom” Fox Run home prices from earlier in the year, but homes are still relatively inexpensive. Couple that with all-time low mortgage rates and home affordability looks excellent. Consider making an offer while the terms are right.

Existing Home Sales dropped in May for the first time in 3 months but still managed to post its second-highest since November 2009, buoyed by the expiring federal tax credit program.

An “existing home” is a home that cannot be considered new construction; a resale of an existing home.  Existing Home Sales fell 2.2 percent in May.

The press is calling the drop in sales “unexpected” and disappointing, but a deeper look at the data shows the news isn’t as bad as it first appears.

First, on a regional basis, sales were mostly solid. Only the Northeast region posted a loss. The West even managed a gain.

• Northeast : -18.3 percent
• Midwest : 0.0 percent
• South : +0.5 percent
• West : +4.9 percent

Second, the supply of homes for sale dropped to 8.3 in May and, because home prices are based on supply and demand, this is a positive for pricing.

By comparison, in 2008, the average existing home inventory was 10.4 months.

And, lastly, in May, first-time home buyers represented 46 percent of all buyers. The number was likely buoyed by the tax credit program but that doesn’t damper the fact that first-time buyers provide a support floor for the housing market.

First-time buyers in Maryville enable “existing owners” to move-up to bigger homes, which, in turn, trickles up to the mid-size and jumbo markets.

Analysts expected more from May’s numbers and that may explain why the reaction to the data is generally negative.  However, in many cities, home resales did just fine.

Are Prices Moving Up In Knoxville?

Home values rose in March, according to the Federal Home Finance Agency’s most recent Home Price Index. Values were reported higher by 0.3 percent, on average, from February.

We use the phrase “on average” because the Home Price Index is broad-reaching, national housing statistic. It ignores the dynamics of neighborhood real estate markets like Montgomery Cove as well as citywide markets like Farragut , too.

Instead, the Home Price Index focuses on state and regional statistics.

For example, in March 2010 as compared to February:

• Values in the East South Central region rose 2.5%
• Values in the Mountain states rose 1.1%
• Values in the Middle Atlantic states fell 1.0%

Of course, none of this data is especially helpful for today’s home buyers and sellers.

Real estate is a local phenomenon that can’t be summarized by state or region. What matters most to buyers and sellers is the economics of a neighborhood and that level of granularity can’t be served up by a national housing report like the Home Price Index.

The Home Price Index data is additionally unhelpful to buyers and sellers in that it reports on a 2-month delay.

In other words, Home Price Index is not even a fair reflection of today’s market — it highlights the real estate market as it existed 60 days ago.

So why is the Home Price Index even published? Because government, business and banks rely on the reports.  As a national indicator, the Home Price Index helps governments make policy, businesses make decisions, and banks make guidelines. This, in turn, trickles down to Main Street where it impacts every one of us — and eventually influences real estate.

Since peaking in April 2007, the Home Price Index is off 13.44 percent.

There has NEVER been a better time to buy in Knoxville, TN. There are plenty of homes to choose from, interest rates are low making it a buyers market. If you need any help give me a call at 865-675-8326 or email me Rick@TheBigOrangePress.com

PRICES ARE STILL FLAT…WHY??

The Sales in the Knoxville Real Estate market have been up over the last few months. Mostly because of low interest rates and the tax credits that end today. But the prices remain flat and it is really just excess inventory that is coming off the market.It is going to take a major drop in the Knoxville real estate inventory before we see and increase in prices.  Earlier this week, Standard & Poors released its February Case-Shiller Index, a home price tracker for select metropolitan areas.

Overwhelmingly, home values fell in the 20 markets tracked by the Case-Shiller. Only San Diego showed a modest increase.  The other 19 markets averaged a 1.23 percent decline between January and February.

However, that’s not the story you read in the most papers. Instead, headlines read that home values were up in the United States, citing annualized data.

Unfortunately for active home buyers and sellers, year-over-year data isn’t all that helpful when making a real estate decisions. It’s the month-to-month data that matters. Month-to-month changes in home prices are what defines a housing market. Month-to-month is what sets the tone for contracts and negotiations on a purchase.

The rosier, annualized data published this past week just doesn’t capture the reality of what was the February 2010 market.  And even then, the data is somewhat useless because it’s from February and May will be upon us next week.

Case-Shiller is on a 2-month lag — hardly reflective of the “right now” of real estate in Knoxville.

When you’re looking for real estate data that actionable, consider using sources that are more “real-time”. A real estate agent may be the right place to start.  Because for all the data that Case-Shiller and the other housing indices collect, it can never be as relevant to your individual needs as a well-executed, timely market analysis.

Check out my 5 Step Program to make your buying experience smooth and painless. It is FREE and will help you. Call me at 865-675-8326 or Rick@TheBigOrangePress.com I would love to help you find a new home

After a strong March showing and a surprise upward-revision for February, Housing Starts are, once again, trending better.

It’s yet another signal that the housing market in Farragut and nationwide is stabilized.

A Housing Start is a new home on which construction has started and, over the last 6 months, home builders are averaging one half-million starts per month.

This marks the highest 6-month average since 2008 and a reading one-fifth percent better from 12 months ago.  Revisions to prior data have all been higher, too.

Even more interesting, though, is that the number of newly-issued building permits is exploding. Permits were up more than 5 percent last month and have climbed back to the levels of late-2008.

Housing permits are an important data point in housing because permits are precursors to actual housing starts.  According to the Census Bureau, 82% of homes start construction within 60 days of permit-issuance.

Therefore, because March’s housing permits increased, we should expect Housing Starts to continue to rise into the early months of summer.

This, too, reflects well on housing because the federal home buyer tax credit won’t be in existence this summer. The simple fact the homes are being built now shows that housing is likely to expand even after the tax credit expires.

Non-military members must be under contract by April 30, 2010 and closed by June 30, 2010 in order to claim up to $8,000 in federal tax credits.

Home values fell again in January, according to the Federal Home Finance Agency’s Home Price Index. Values were reported down 0.6 percent, on average.

We say “on average” because the Home Price Index is a national report. It doesn’t capture the essence of a local market like Fox Run , or even a city market like Farragut.

The most granular that the monthly Home Price Index gets is regional and January’s report shows that:

• Values in the Mountain states rose 2.0%
• Values in the Pacific states were flat
• Values in the East North Central states fell 1.8%

It’s hardly helpful for home buyers entering the market, or home sellers trying to properly price a home.  Furthermore, because the Home Price Index reports on a 2-month delay, its data fails to reflect the current market conditions.

Versus January — the period from which HPI data is collected — mortgage rates are lower, buyer activity is up, and the federal home buyer tax credit is closer to expiring.  These each can have an impact on housing.

Ultimately, national real estate data like the Home Price Index is best suited for lenders and policy-makers.  National data helps to identify trends that shape formal policy, but it doesn’t help you, specifically.

Since peaking in April 2007, the Home Price Index is off 13.2 percent.

Knoxville New Home Buyers Don’t  Miss Your Best Buying Opportunity Ever

The housing recovery showed particular weakness in the Knoxville New Homes Sales category last month — good news for Knoxville TN  homebuyers in in the Knoxville Real Estate Market and around the country.

A “new home” is a home for which there’s no previous owner.

New Home Sales fell 11 percent from the month prior and posted the fewest units sold in a month since 1963 — the year the government first started tracking New Home Sales data.

Right now, there are roughly 234,000 new homes for sale nationwide and, at the current sales pace, it would take 9.1 months to sell them all. This is nearly 2 months longer than at October 2009’s pace.

The reasons for the spike in supply are varied:

• The original home buyer tax credit expired in November
• Weather conditions were awful in most of the country in January
• Weak employment and consumer confidence continue to hinder big ticket sales

Now, these might be less-than-optimal developments for the economy as a whole, but for buyers of new homes, it’s a welcome turn of events. Home prices are based on supply and demand, after all.

As a result, this season’s home buyers may be treated to “free” upgrades from home builders, plus seller concessions and lower sales prices overall.

It’s all a matter of timing, of course.  New Home Sales reports on a 1-month lag so it’s not necessarily reflective of the current, post-Super Bowl home buying season.  And from market to market, sales activity varies.

That said, mortgage rates remain low, home prices are steady, and the federal tax credit gives two more months to go under contract. It’s a favorable time to buy a new home.

There has never been a better time to buy a home in the Knoxville Area than right now. The rates are low, prices are low and their are plenty of homes to choose from on the market. Another reason is the tax credit available not just to first time home buyers but move up buyers that I talked about in an earlier post. Considering all of the above NOW is the time to get out there and start shopping around for a new home.

Check out my 5 Step Program to make your buying experience smooth and painless. It is FREE and will help you. Call me at 865-675-8326 or Rick@TheBigOrangePress.com I would love to help you find a new home.

Also check out

5 Steps To Getting the best deal on a Knoxville Home Part 1

Part 2 Of Getting A Good Deal On A Knoxville Home