Existing Home Sales dropped in May for the first time in 3 months but still managed to post its second-highest since November 2009, buoyed by the expiring federal tax credit program.

An “existing home” is a home that cannot be considered new construction; a resale of an existing home.  Existing Home Sales fell 2.2 percent in May.

The press is calling the drop in sales “unexpected” and disappointing, but a deeper look at the data shows the news isn’t as bad as it first appears.

First, on a regional basis, sales were mostly solid. Only the Northeast region posted a loss. The West even managed a gain.

• Northeast : -18.3 percent
• Midwest : 0.0 percent
• South : +0.5 percent
• West : +4.9 percent

Second, the supply of homes for sale dropped to 8.3 in May and, because home prices are based on supply and demand, this is a positive for pricing.

By comparison, in 2008, the average existing home inventory was 10.4 months.

And, lastly, in May, first-time home buyers represented 46 percent of all buyers. The number was likely buoyed by the tax credit program but that doesn’t damper the fact that first-time buyers provide a support floor for the housing market.

First-time buyers in Maryville enable “existing owners” to move-up to bigger homes, which, in turn, trickles up to the mid-size and jumbo markets.

Analysts expected more from May’s numbers and that may explain why the reaction to the data is generally negative.  However, in many cities, home resales did just fine.

Single-family housing starts plummeted to a one-year low in May, just 30 days after soaring to a 20-month high.  It’s no wonder home builders are confused.

Against a revised April figure, Housing Starts fell 97,000 units in May, a figure representing almost one-fifth of the total market size.

It’s the worst showing for Housing Starts since May 2009, a surprise to builders and economists alike.

Furthermore, single-family Building Permits plunged in May, too — down 10 percent from April. A permit is a certification from local government that authorizes home construction.

Housing permits are a precursor to Housing Starts with 82% of homes starting construction within 60 days of permit-issuance. Fewer permits, therefore, directly reduces the number of new homes coming to market in the coming months.

For home buyers in Knoxville , this should create a sense of urgency.

Home prices are based on supply and demand and supply appears to be falling about the same time that economists predict a surge in home demand.  It could spell rising home prices and a complete loss of negotiation power with home sellers.

For now, though, home affordability remains high with properties cheap and mortgage rates near all-time lows. If you plan to buy a home later this year, the May 2010 Housing Starts data may be a reason to move up your timeframe a bit.

According to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac.com, bank repossessions reached record levels for the second straight month in May, topping 93,000 properties nationwide.

As compared to May 2009, all 50 states now show an increase in annual REO activity.

Data like that won’t surprise today’s active home buyers in Farragut.  Foreclosed homes are prevalent, available and accounted for one-third of all home resales made in April.

Furthermore, total foreclosure actions — the sum of REO, default notices, and foreclosure auctions in May — topped 300,000 for the 15th straight month.

Foreclosures remain a huge influence on the housing market.

However, two interesting trends emerged in the data:

1. 9 of the top 10 metro areas for foreclosure posted annual activity decreases
2. Each of the top 4 states for Foreclosures per Household posted annual activity decreases

We can infer, therefore, that foreclosure activity may be in permanent decline in the areas hardest hit through 2007, 2008, and 2009.  In 2010, the data shows, foreclosures are waning.

This is reason for optimism — especially as FHA delinquencies slow nationwide. As fewer homeowners go delinquent, the pace of foreclosures will slow further and that should help boost home values on every block in the country.

If you’ve been considered bank-owned homes for your own purchase, give a look at the RealtyTrac foreclosure report.  It’s provides insight on a state-by-state level, and in the nation’s largest metropolitan areas.

Then, to complement your research, talk to your real estate about the foreclosure market and what opportunities may exist.   Competition for bank-owned homes can be fierce at times, but there’s plenty of “deals” out there.

You just have to know where to look.

Mortgage rates may be dropping, but mortgage costs are not.

According to Freddie Mac, the average required discount points on a conforming mortgage rate are higher by 0.1 percent since early-May.

A “discount point” is prepaid mortgage interest; an up-front fee paid by a borrower in exchange for a lower mortgage rate. In most cases, discount points are tax-deductible.

Tax-deductible or not, though, rising costs are rising costs and Freddie Mac glosses over it.  In its weekly press release, the government group offers mortgage rate comparisons to weeks prior, but doesn’t do the same for required points.

The press fails to mention discount points entirely.

An increase of 1/10 percent in discount points costs homebuyers and refinancing households in Maryville an extra $100 per $100,000 borrowed.

The hike reminds us that there’s more to a mortgage than just its rate — costs matter, too.  And if you’ve only been watching the headlines, you would have missed how costs are rising.

Because of strife in Greece, Spain and North Korea, conforming mortgage rates are back to all-time lows. They’re at levels not seen in 50 years.  For homeowners that missed the Refi Boom of November 2009, it’s a second chance.

In this well-presented, 3-minute video from NBC’s The Today Show, you’ll get tips getting low rates and choosing the best time to lock in.

Some of the topics covered include:

• Why were the experts wrong about rates moving higher this summer?
• How much money can you save with a 1 point drop in your interest rate?
• Should you buy a bigger home now that rates have fallen?

The advice in the piece is matter-of-fact and centered.  There is no cheerleading and the message is honest. Mortgage rates are low and they likely won’t stay that way.  If you’ve been thinking about a refinance, talk to your loan officer as soon as possible.

Are Prices Moving Up In Knoxville?

Home values rose in March, according to the Federal Home Finance Agency’s most recent Home Price Index. Values were reported higher by 0.3 percent, on average, from February.

We use the phrase “on average” because the Home Price Index is broad-reaching, national housing statistic. It ignores the dynamics of neighborhood real estate markets like Montgomery Cove as well as citywide markets like Farragut , too.

Instead, the Home Price Index focuses on state and regional statistics.

For example, in March 2010 as compared to February:

• Values in the East South Central region rose 2.5%
• Values in the Mountain states rose 1.1%
• Values in the Middle Atlantic states fell 1.0%

Of course, none of this data is especially helpful for today’s home buyers and sellers.

Real estate is a local phenomenon that can’t be summarized by state or region. What matters most to buyers and sellers is the economics of a neighborhood and that level of granularity can’t be served up by a national housing report like the Home Price Index.

The Home Price Index data is additionally unhelpful to buyers and sellers in that it reports on a 2-month delay.

In other words, Home Price Index is not even a fair reflection of today’s market — it highlights the real estate market as it existed 60 days ago.

So why is the Home Price Index even published? Because government, business and banks rely on the reports.  As a national indicator, the Home Price Index helps governments make policy, businesses make decisions, and banks make guidelines. This, in turn, trickles down to Main Street where it impacts every one of us — and eventually influences real estate.

Since peaking in April 2007, the Home Price Index is off 13.44 percent.

There has NEVER been a better time to buy in Knoxville, TN. There are plenty of homes to choose from, interest rates are low making it a buyers market. If you need any help give me a call at 865-675-8326 or email me Rick@TheBigOrangePress.com

Will The Shadow Inventory Help The Real Estate Market In Knoxville??

Will It Increase Short Sales In Knoxville??

The real estate market in Knoxville seem to be improving somewhat??  But there is something out there that could increase Knoxville Loan Modifications as well as the number of  Knoxville Short Sales.  It is what is known as the “Shadow Inventory”? What is it? How will effect the Knoxville real estate market and markets around the country. Will there be more short sales in Knoxville and around the country. These are the things we will explore in this  3 part series.

In recent months, aspects of the real estate market have seem to have stabilized. Homes sales and prices have been increasing, partially to be credited to the First Time Home Buyer’s Tax Credit that ended on April 30, 2010.

Still, interest rates and foreclosures have been increasing. And, we’ve been hearing more and more about the term “shadow inventory” in the news and what kinds of problems it could bring to to the real-estate market.  So, what’s the prognosis for the real estate market? And, how does the term “shadow inventory” factor in?

The definition of shadow inventory varies from person to person and how far ahead in the future that person is looking. And with the varying of definitions, comes a great variation in the ultimate level of desctruction that it will cause to the already fragile real-estate market.

According to recent studies from, Amherst and the National Association of Realtors (done by economist Selma Lewis), the devastation of shadow inventory that could hit the market is anywhere from 2.49 million homes, as predicted by NAR, to 7.57 homes, as predicted by Amherst.

To anyone with interests in the real estate market, these numbers could have crucial impacts on the market for years to come.  If this number of houses does get on the market like many experts are predicting, it would cause a huge inventory of houses to hit the market causing already low home prices to become much, much lower.

The definition of shadow inventory has evolved greatly.  To clear things up, here are a few different definitions:

Definition 1: All properties that are real-estate owned (REO) — that is, homes that are repossessed by lenders, but not yet on the market.

Definition 2: Homes that are REO, homes that are seriously delinquent on payments and likely to be entering into the foreclosure process, or homes that are entered into the foreclosure process.

According to the Mortage Bankers Association’s last National Delinquency Survey, in the fourth quarter of 2009, there were 7.33 million loans that were delinquent or in foreclosure.  This fact could possibly suggest that lender’s are playing a game of “extend and pretend” – meaning that they are delaying the inevitable of homes going into the foreclosure process.  Data from the Loan Processing Services (LPS) seems to support this idea, at the end of February 2010, there were 6.89 million homes that were delinquent and only 1.79 million of those were in the foreclosure process. Data from LPS also shows that in 2008-2009, loans that were 30-60 days late remained relatively stable, but loans that were “seriously delinquent” or 90+ days late were increasing rapidly.

Despite these dismal predictions though, there is some silver lining: not all of these properties will end up on the real estate market, some will be cured by Knoxville  loan modifications, Knoxville short sales or refinances.  Another huge influence on how the influx of properties will affect the market depends on when and how quickly these properties enter onto the market. If the hit the market gradually, they could ultimately just be absorbed without much effect on the market by pent-up demand and growth in housing formation.

Though, definitions and statistics on shadow inventory vary there, is one thing that can be agreed upon: there are many houses currently in limbo.  What is left to be said, is when and how many of these houses will hit the market and predicting these facts is about as easy as trying to predict the weather.

If you are a Knoxville homeowner having problems making you mortgage payments and want to know your options. Please feel free to download my free reports

You do have options as a Knoxville homeowner who may be facing foreclosure. Don’t let your home go to foreclosure call me at 865-675-8326 or email me Rick@KnoxvilleHomeSaver.com let’s setup a time to talk about your situation and talk about your options. I’m here to help you as a trained Realtor with the CDPE designation I can help you…

The national foreclosure rate is finally falling. But there is still a back log of homes where homeowners are behind on their mortgage payments. The shadow inventory is large and still going. These are homes in Knoxville and around the country where the homeowners are behind on their mortgage payments and trying to do a loan modification or considering a short sale. I personally have seen an up tick in my business with area Knoxville homeowners who want to sell their home on a short sale in order to avoid foreclosure

According to foreclosure-tracking firm RealtyTrac.com, the number of foreclosure notices dropped 2 percent between April 2009 and April 2010.

2 percent may not seem like much, but it’s the first time in the history of the RealtyTrac report that the annual foreclosure rate has dropped.

To be sure, foreclosure rates remain elevated — more than 300,000 were reported last month, but default notices appear to be approaching a plateau.

The RealtyTrac report shows some other interesting statistics, too:

• 6 states accounted for more than half of April’s bank repossessions nationwide
• For the 40th month in a row, Nevada topped the nation’s foreclosure rate
• Foreclosure rates dropped in both California and Arizona, 2 foreclosure hot-spots through 2009

The good news for housing doesn’t stop there.  9 of the top 10 leading metropolitan areas for foreclosure-related activity showed a drop in annual activity.  Only Reno, Nevada showed an increase.

Buying distressed homes is big business, according to the National Association of Realtors®, accounting for 35 percent of all home resales with a typical discount ranging near 15 percent on value.

But with the discount comes some caution. You need to know how buying a foreclosed can be different from buying a non-foreclosed home.

For example, distressed properties are often sold as-is and may have defects that render them “un-lendable”.  Secondly, “quick closings” aren’t usually possible with bank-owned homes — you’re often at the bank’s schedule and mercy.

And, lastly, not all foreclosed homes are searchable online. You’ll usually find more stock if you work with a real estate agent versus searching online.

The RealtyTrac foreclosure report is thorough and can help you gauge what’s happening on a state-by-state level, and in the nation’s largest metropolitan areas.  Once you’ve done your research, talk to your real estate agent about what to do next.

This is good news for the Knoxville Estate Market and around the country. But we aren’t out of the woods yet there are still tough times ahead for many homeowners.

If you are a Knoxville Home owner facing foreclosure you do have options. It takes a train professional like myself with the CDPE designation to help guide a distressed homeowner through the short sale process. As a CDPE we are up to date on all the latest trends and changes that are going on in order to help homeowners who may be facing foreclosure.

If you are a Knoxville homeowner having problems making you mortgage payments and want to know your options. Please feel free to download my free reports

You do have options as a Knoxville homeowner who may be facing foreclosure. Don’t let your home go to foreclosure call me at 865-675-8326 or email me Rick@KnoxvilleHomeSaver.com let’s setup a time to talk about your situation and talk about your options. I’m here to help you as a trained Realtor with the CDPE designation I can help you…

So what do I  do sell my Knoxville home on a short sale, loan modification….which is best

So your a Knoxville home owner..You are having a tough time making the mortgage payments on your Knoxville home.. You are not alone… So what do you do?? You have heard about all the solutions out there for you, researched them on the internet. Should I sell my Knoxville home using a short sale because I owe more on it than it is worth? How about a loan modification how does that work.. Will my lender even work with me if I choose to sell my using a short sale? How about a deed-in-lieu instead of my home being foreclosed on by my lender..How does that work?? What if I have 2 mortgages on my home??

Are these some of the question you are asking yourself?? If you are having trouble making your mortgage payments and don’t know where to turn you do have options other than foreclosure. You have don’t remember your lender doesn’t want to won your home. they are in the business of loaning money not real estate.

If you are having trouble the first thing you should do is contact your lender and let them you know you are having trouble making your payments and why. Then you should contact a qualified representative like a CDPE to discuss your options. That way you can make an educated decision that is best for you and your family once you have all the facts.

Are You Eligible for one of the Government Programs??

The government programs currently available to homeowners can be valuable resources, but only if you know which ones are right for your situation.

That’s why I’ve created this free resource that lets you find out which programs you’re eligible for. Read the descriptions for each program to see which one fits your situation, then fill out the corresponding survey to see if you are eligible.

Find out here or get more details here

If you are a Knoxville homeowner having problems making you mortgage payments and want to know your options. Please feel free to download my free reports

You do have options as a Knoxville homeowner who may be facing foreclosure. Don’t let your home go to foreclosure call me at 865-675-8326 or email me Rick@KnoxvilleHomeSaver.com let’s setup a time to talk about your situation and talk about your options. I’m here to help you as a trained Realtor with the CDPE designation I can help you…

PRICES ARE STILL FLAT…WHY??

The Sales in the Knoxville Real Estate market have been up over the last few months. Mostly because of low interest rates and the tax credits that end today. But the prices remain flat and it is really just excess inventory that is coming off the market.It is going to take a major drop in the Knoxville real estate inventory before we see and increase in prices.  Earlier this week, Standard & Poors released its February Case-Shiller Index, a home price tracker for select metropolitan areas.

Overwhelmingly, home values fell in the 20 markets tracked by the Case-Shiller. Only San Diego showed a modest increase.  The other 19 markets averaged a 1.23 percent decline between January and February.

However, that’s not the story you read in the most papers. Instead, headlines read that home values were up in the United States, citing annualized data.

Unfortunately for active home buyers and sellers, year-over-year data isn’t all that helpful when making a real estate decisions. It’s the month-to-month data that matters. Month-to-month changes in home prices are what defines a housing market. Month-to-month is what sets the tone for contracts and negotiations on a purchase.

The rosier, annualized data published this past week just doesn’t capture the reality of what was the February 2010 market.  And even then, the data is somewhat useless because it’s from February and May will be upon us next week.

Case-Shiller is on a 2-month lag — hardly reflective of the “right now” of real estate in Knoxville.

When you’re looking for real estate data that actionable, consider using sources that are more “real-time”. A real estate agent may be the right place to start.  Because for all the data that Case-Shiller and the other housing indices collect, it can never be as relevant to your individual needs as a well-executed, timely market analysis.

Check out my 5 Step Program to make your buying experience smooth and painless. It is FREE and will help you. Call me at 865-675-8326 or Rick@TheBigOrangePress.com I would love to help you find a new home