Single-Family Housing Starts Fade In July
August 19th, 2010 categories: Existing Home Sales, Home Values, Homebuilders, Housing Starts, New Home Sales, Pending Home Sales
Sometimes, you need to look deeper than the headlines to get the news that matters. This basic truth’s latest example comes from the July Housing Starts data, as published by the U.S. Census Bureau.
According to the newspapers, Housing Starts improved last month:
- US Housing Starts Make Modest Rebound (FT)
- Housing Starts Rise Slightly (MoneyWatch)
- Housing Starts Tick Higher In July (MarketWatch)
However, these stories are speaking in terms of all housing starts — not just the single-family ones. This is a major point of difference for home buyers in Farragut because the most people don’t buy the multi-unit homes and apartment buildings that’s also a part of the Housing Starts data.
The overwhelming majority of buyers buy single-family homes and in July, as in the previous 3 months, the number of single-family housing starts fell.
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Housing Starts Ease 0.7 Percent In June — 7x Better Than The Headline Data
July 21st, 2010 categories: Housing Starts
Single-family Housing Starts eased lower last month, falling by 0.7 percent from May, or 3,000 units nationwide.
A “housing start” is a home on which construction has started.
June’s Housing Starts data is somewhat soft and may partially explain why home builder confidence dropped to its lowest level since April 2009, but for buyers and sellers in Farragut , the Housing Starts report is not nearly as bad as headlines say.
This is because when the press reports on Housing Starts, it doesn’t single out single-family homes. The press lumps every type of home into a single, giant reading. As a result, news outlets are reporting Housing Starts down 5 percent — a somewhat misleading figure.
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Good News For Sellers : Housing Starts Fall To 1-Year Low In May 2010
June 17th, 2010 categories: Buyers, Existing Home Sales, FHA Mortgages, Home Values, Housing Starts, Market Trends, Sellers
Single-family housing starts plummeted to a one-year low in May, just 30 days after soaring to a 20-month high. It’s no wonder home builders are confused.
Against a revised April figure, Housing Starts fell 97,000 units in May, a figure representing almost one-fifth of the total market size.
It’s the worst showing for Housing Starts since May 2009, a surprise to builders and economists alike.
Furthermore, single-family Building Permits plunged in May, too — down 10 percent from April. A permit is a certification from local government that authorizes home construction.
Housing permits are a precursor to Housing Starts with 82% of homes starting construction within 60 days of permit-issuance. Fewer permits, therefore, directly reduces the number of new homes coming to market in the coming months.
For home buyers in Knoxville , this should create a sense of urgency.
Home prices are based on supply and demand and supply appears to be falling about the same time that economists predict a surge in home demand. It could spell rising home prices and a complete loss of negotiation power with home sellers.
For now, though, home affordability remains high with properties cheap and mortgage rates near all-time lows. If you plan to buy a home later this year, the May 2010 Housing Starts data may be a reason to move up your timeframe a bit.
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Will The Knoxville Housing Market Slow Down After The Tax Credit Expires??
April 22nd, 2010 categories: General, Home Price Index, Home Values, Homebuyer Tax Credit, Housing Starts, Market Trends
After a strong March showing and a surprise upward-revision for February, Housing Starts are, once again, trending better.
It’s yet another signal that the housing market in Farragut and nationwide is stabilized.
A Housing Start is a new home on which construction has started and, over the last 6 months, home builders are averaging one half-million starts per month.
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Single-Family Housing Starts Hold Steady For The 8th Straight Month
March 18th, 2010 categories: Housing Starts
Single-family Housing Starts idled last month, dropping just 3,000 units from the month prior, or 0.2%.
According to the Commerce Department’s report, February marked the 8th straight month in which Housing Starts straddled the half-million marker, dating back to June 2009.
This is a different slant on the Housing Starts story as told by the press.
Most publications are reporting that Housing Starts fell 5.9 percent in February. Technically, this is true. Housing Starts did fall 5.9 percent last month. However, the Housing Starts data is comprised of three parts:
- Single-Family Housing Starts
- 2-4 Unit Housing Starts
- “Apartment Building” Housing Starts (i.e. 5 or more units)
The press tends to lump all 3 together but that’s not relevant for everyday homeowners and buyers.
2-4 unit homes, and apartments and condos are a different housing class as compared to single-family homes and are notoriously volatile, too. Single-family starts are more steady and better reflect the country’s housing stock.
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Housing Starts Soar To 6-Month High In January… Or Do They?
February 19th, 2010 categories: Buyers, Housing Starts, Market Trends, Statistics
Sometimes, headlines for housing can be misleading and this week gave us a terrific example.
On Wednesday, the Commerce Department released its Housing Starts data for January 2010. The data showed starts at a 6-month high.
A “Housing Start” is a privately-owned home on which construction has started.
Headlines on the Housing Starts story included:
- U.S. Housing Starts Hit 6-Month High (Reuters)
- U.S. Economy Receives Home Building Boost (Shepparton)
- Housing Starts Post Sharp Rebound (ABC)
Based to the headlines, the housing market looks poised for rapid growth through the Spring Market.
The real story, though, is that although Housing Starts increased by close to 3 percent last month, the growth is mostly attributed to buildings with 5 or more units. This includes apartments and condominiums — a sector of the housing market that’s notoriously volatile.
If we isolate Housing Starts for single-family homes only, we see that starts grew by just 7,000 units last month and have failed to break a range since June 2009. January’s tally is slightly below the 8-month average.
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