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Rick Smenner


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Knoxville, TN 37922
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Rick@TheBigOrangePress.com

Home Values Within 12.5 Percent Of April 2007 Peak, Nationwide


Home Price Index from April 2007 peak

According the Federal Home Finance Agency’s Home Price Index, home values are now off just 12.5 percent from their April 2007 peak nationwide.  This, after a half-percent monthly increase in prices in May, on average.

Given the state of the market since April 2007, the Home Price Index results are a positive for both the housing market and the economy, but we have to remember that May’s half-point increase is an average, and not specific to a particular area.

In contrast to “national markets”, the real estate markets in which you and I live are decidedly local.  It’s a major difference and the distinction renders the Home Price Index somewhat less important.

After all, the HPI doesn’t account for housing activity in individual neighborhoods like Montgomery Cove , nor does it track value across cities like Knoxville. Instead, it summarizes data in giant chunks of geography.

A quick look at the HPI regional data proves the point. Of the HPI’s 9 tracked regions, only one was within one-tenth of one percent of the national, half-point average.  The others varied by as much 1.3 percent.

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The Flawed Home Price Index Shows Home Values Up 0.8 Percent


Monthly change in Home Price Index from April 2007 peak

Last week, the Case-Shiller Index reported home values up 0.8 percent across 20 tracked markets. The public-sector Federal Housing Finance Agency has reached a similar conclusion.

Reporting on a two-month lag, the government’s Home Price Index shows home values up 0.8 percent in April, buoyed by the expiring federal home buyer tax credit and low mortgage rates.  It’s a positive signal for a recovering housing market — in Maryville and everywhere else.

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Case-Shiller Shows Home Price Improvement In 90% Of Cities


Case-Shiller Change In Home Values Mar-Apr 2010

Standard & Poors released its Case-Shiller Index Tuesday.  The index is a monthly home valuation report from select cities and among the private sector’s most popular home pricing models.

In reviewing the April Case-Shiller Index and its accompanying analysis, it appears that the housing market’s rebound is gathering momentum.

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Home Price Index Rises 0.3% in March 2010


Home Price Index from April 2007 peakAre Prices Moving Up In Knoxville?

Home values rose in March, according to the Federal Home Finance Agency’s most recent Home Price Index. Values were reported higher by 0.3 percent, on average, from February.

We use the phrase “on average” because the Home Price Index is broad-reaching, national housing statistic. It ignores the dynamics of neighborhood real estate markets like Montgomery Cove as well as citywide markets like Farragut , too.

Instead, the Home Price Index focuses on state and regional statistics.

For example, in March 2010 as compared to February:

Of course, none of this data is especially helpful for today’s home buyers and sellers.

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Case-Shiller Shows Home Price Improvement In A Majority Of Cities Nationwide


Case-Shiller Monthly Change Dec 2009 - Jan 2010

Standard & Poors released its Case-Shiller Index Wednesday. The report shows that, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, between December and January, home prices rose in more than half of the index’s tracked markets.

The strength of this month’s Case-Shiller report, however, should be put in context.

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The Home Price Index Shows Home Values Lower Broadly, But Not Specifically


Home Price Index April 2007 to January 2010

Home values fell again in January, according to the Federal Home Finance Agency’s Home Price Index. Values were reported down 0.6 percent, on average.

We say “on average” because the Home Price Index is a national report. It doesn’t capture the essence of a local market like Fox Run , or even a city market like Farragut.

The most granular that the monthly Home Price Index gets is regional and January’s report shows that:

It’s hardly helpful for home buyers entering the market, or home sellers trying to properly price a home.  Furthermore, because the Home Price Index reports on a 2-month delay, its data fails to reflect the current market conditions.

Versus January — the period from which HPI data is collected — mortgage rates are lower, buyer activity is up, and the federal home buyer tax credit is closer to expiring.  These each can have an impact on housing.

Ultimately, national real estate data like the Home Price Index is best suited for lenders and policy-makers.  National data helps to identify trends that shape formal policy, but it doesn’t help you, specifically.

Since peaking in April 2007, the Home Price Index is off 13.2 percent.

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